With Ferrari locking out the second row it appears their pace looks strong, however the nature of the Bahrain circuit means it is not as simple as it looks.
With the ever-changing Sakhir International Circuit playing havoc with the team’s respective car balance, the shape of the competitive order for the race should not necessarily be judged off of qualifying.
With Pirelli bringing grippier front tyres for 2023, the balance of the cars has gone from being more towards understeer to being more oversteer limited. This, coupled with Sakhir being a rear limited circuit with heavily abrasive asphalt, the teams are trying to set the cars up to protect the rear tyres over a long stint.
As the track temperature changes however, so does the balance. While Red Bull looked supreme during testing, in both morning sessions this weekend Max Verstappen was complaining of balance issues. When the sun set and the track cooled however, the RB19 was back within its spot as the grip increased.
This is why in FP2 the reigning champion was quickest on the long runs and took pole today.
Fernando Alonso, who many had tipped for pole based off his searing pace all weekend, only did one lap in Q3 to save a set of softs for the race, and qualified fifth behind the two Ferrari’s of Leclerc and Sainz respectively.
The SF-23’s balance seems more oversteery, and while this is good for qualifying, the rear tyres will struggle more during the race. The long runs in FP2 back this up. Leclerc was lapping around 7- tenths a lap slower than Verstappen during the race sim, hence the Scuderia’s decision to save a fresh set of softs for the start of the Grand Prix to minimise the effect of their heightened degradation.
Leclerc said he would rather start third with new tyres than be on pole with a used set, and his teammate feels that Aston will have “lower degradation” than them throughout the race.
With a little more understeer dialled into the car, The AMR23 should be kinder on its rear tyres and potentially see Alonso with a shot at podium finish – on merit.
Lewis Hamilton admitted that he went for a set-up that will work better for the race, however, the W14 is encumbered with rear grip and traction problems, so, Mercedes may not be so much of a threat to their rivals in front for the opening Grand Prix of the season – which isn’t as simple as Qualifying portrayed.
Photo: Scuderia Ferrari