With the chequered flag of the Saudi Arabian GP falling, it became clear that one of the front running teams are not happy, and no it’s not Ferrari. Mercedes have built a reputation as being one of the best, recently however things have not been well on and off track. Is this the Fall of Mercedes?
New Rules – Over Before it Began
With the introduction of the new rules for the 2022 season, all eyes were on Mercedes to see what they could bring to the table. if recent history is to be believed, the team that invented the DAS system, surly they would come up with something? Well, they did it was dubbed the “zero-sidepod” concept, the slightly misleading label, described a concept that only Mercedes followed. Was this the beginning of the fall for Mercedes
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The concept drew plenty of attention, had they found something that no other team had discovered or have they made a monumental error, unfortunately for the Silver Arrows and their passionate followers, it was the latter.
Porpoising and the Lack of Pace
One of the clearest signs that things were not going to go well raised it’s head early during practice for the 2022 season, this was in the form of porposing, an aerodynamic phenomenon linked to ground effect.
Porpoising is when a Formula 1 car bounces up and down – a phenomenon caused by an increase, then a sudden decrease, of downforce. It is traditionally associated with ground effect cars.
It was clear, almost instantly, that Mercedes were not going to fight for the 2022 Championship, it almost looked like they would struggle to maintain a top three finish in the Constructors battle. They were suffering from porposing to a higher degree than the rest of the grid, which led to setups to tackle this issue, rather than to find the speed from the car.
The first race of the season in Bahrain highlighted exactly where Mercedes were, and it was not pretty viewing, Lewis Hamilton managed to secure fourth on the grid, but he was over half a second behind Charles Leclerc, who secured pole. Mercedes and Hamilton would secure a podium, with Russell securing fourth, it was clear that they did not have the pace to battle the Ferrari and Redbull cars.
What Went Wrong?
Inevitably, questions were being asked, How could Mercedes get it so wrong? In an article with The Times, Toto Wolff admitted that they “got the physics wrong”, this led to Mercedes down a different development path throughout the 2022 season, with upgrades designed to installed to help cure or mitigate the issues with the W13.
“We got the physics wrong, It’s no myth. We misinterpreted some of the regulations. We put too much emphasis on seeking performance in a car that was supposed to run on the ground, very low. But you can’t run it so low, because it [the floor of the car] was hitting the ground. So we had to lift it up, which changed things again. It sounds like a trivial explanation, but this is the reality.”
Toto Wolff discussing the Mercedes W13 during an interview with the times
Lewis Hamilton was also used to help the team understand the issues, with the seven time champion trying experimental setups during the early part of the season. Lewis’s teammate, George Russell was given a more standard setup.
Mercedes PR, was in full swing, with Toto and both drivers, explaining that Mercedes are learning and the team would not make the same mistakes for 2023.
When a Win is a Loss
Mercedes won only one Grand Prix in 2022, at the Sao Paulo GP, with Russell taking the victory and teammate, Hamilton securing the team’s one-two finish.
This was somewhat of relief for the team, who had always stated that they would take at least one victory in 2022. This victory, although welcomed, had an effect on the 2023 season. It would seem that winning in Brazil gave the team some mis-guided loyalty in the zero sidepod concept.
The timing of the victory can also be added to the pot as a reason for the slower start in 2023, if Mercedes were to win an early season race, then became uncompetitive as the season wore on, it would be logical to assume that the team would have looked at changing their concept for 2023.
The 2023 Season
With only two races completed in the 2023, it may seem early to write off Mercedes Championship so early, however it would be clear that things are not going well.
It would seem that both Lewis Hamilton and Toto Wolff had some misgivings around the 2022 concept and the decision to continue with it into 2023.
Early evidence has proven Wolff and Hamilton’s feelings to be correct. Although on the face of it both Mercedes drivers are at the front end of the grid, they are no match against the Redbull and Aston Martin, with Ferrari close to them.
The Aston Martin Effect
The Aston Martin resurgence has also brought into sharp focus these failings, with Aston Martin being a customer partner of Mercedes, buying the Gearbox, Power Unit and Rear Suspension, but showing better pace and understanding of the regulations. Aston Martin were also a team that got things wrong in 2022, however the difference between them and Mercedes was the decision to change their concept for 2023, allowing Fernando Alonso to fight at the front of the grid, and securing two podium finishes in the first two races.
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An Unhappy Hamilton and a Direct Toto
Prior to the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton announced that he and is Personal Assistant Angela Cullen had parted ways, and announcement that seemed pretty sudden. Angela Cullen had been by Lewis’s side for 7 years, helping him to numerous Championships. Both Angela and Lewis commented via social media their appretiation for each other, with no insinuation that it was anything other than a mutual parting of ways.
This was brought into question by Mercedes Team Principal Toto Wolff, who stated during an interview with The Express he stated that it did not come as a surprise, that [Lewis] had been looking for a change for a while.
Angela was part of the gang for a long time. I think in every team, whether that is his close circle, or also in the wider group, this is not a static situation that you can freeze, because we all develop as people, we develop as an organisation and if things don’t work out anymore, then we need to be honest about it and then bring change. Angela will always be a mascot of the team. She’s the only one who has a louder voice than a starting car. But, you know, if this is what he decides, we will always absolutely support him, whatever direct direction he wants to take.”
Toto Wolff elaborates on why Lewis Hamilton and his Performance Coach Angela Cullen split after 7 years – The Fall of Mercedes
Speculation around Lewis Hamilton’s future within Mercedes and Formula 1 was also brought up between the Bahrain GP and Saudi Arabia. Toto Wolff insinuated that he would not be offended if Lewis decided to leave if the team could not provide him with the means to challenge for his eighth Championship. He continued by stating that he didn’t think the Hamilton would leave Mercedes but conceded that it could be a possibility if Mercedes remained in the current situation for the next year or two.
Ultimately, Mercedes are following the trend that runs throughout Formula 1. Teams dominate for a period of time then fall back in to the pack, sometimes they return to the front and sometimes they remain in the pack for an extended period of time.
It should also be mentioned that this is the new cost cap era of Formula 1, this extends the time that it takes for teams to work through problems and issues. Can Mercedes salvage the 2023 season or will Mercedes find themselves thinking about the “good old days”.
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The Fall of Mercedes, Image Courtesy of Autosport.com