Despite putting in his best performance in F2 at Silverstone, has Mercedes begun to swing from Antonelli to focus on Sainz for 2024?
Since Lewis Hamilton’s decision to leave Mercedes to join Ferrari in 2025, Mercedes has looked set to sign 17-year-old Kimi Antonelli for next season.
Pitched as a star of a future likened to Max Verstappen and Hamilton, a mixed run of results for the Italian driver in his maiden season in F2 and raised doubts if the team is likely to put him in the car for 2025 to hold off for another season.
Although Antonelli won his first F2 race in the soaking wet Silverstone sprint race, the silver arrows look more turned to sign Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz after Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff hinted the Spanish driver still has a “chance”.
Photo credit: XPB/Press Association Images.
Speaking to Mundo Deportivo, Wolff, said: “With Carlos, you have a sure value, especially in a very tight championship next year, you have another driver who is going to be very competitive, who, if our car is good, could help us secure a fight for the Constructors’ Championship.
“When I spoke to Carlos I already told him: ‘I am not sure you can wait as long as I would like you to wait. I don’t want to make a decision quickly.’
“If we have more time to decide, Carlos is definitely still a chance, but Carlos needs to make a decision on what he does with the other teams.”
“It has been far from an idyllic season for the Italian so far.”
So what has changed for Mercedes to reconsider the young star which it has so promoted as F1’s next wonderkid?
Ultimately, there’s two factors in this: Antonelli’s struggle in the first half of the F2 season and Mercedes’ resurgence of form.
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While the team had put so much hope in Antonelli, it has been far from an idyllic season for the Italian so far.
On pace with his teammate, Oliver Bearman, Prema has struggled to compete for wins throughout the season which has left two of the most watched drivers in the series struggle to prove themselves.
While Bearman has been outperformed by Antonelli, his future has been secured at Haas for 2025, expected to line-up next to Alpine driver Esteban Ocon. Antonelli, however, is still stuck in limbo.
Described by Wolff as ‘walking on water’ in his impressive drive to take his first win in F2, Mercedes’ sudden rise to the front of the pack has put even more pressure on Antonelli to show his mettle.
“It is a win on merit, and it shows the grit of this team.”
After a somewhat lucky win by George Russell in Austria after Verstappen’s and Lando Norris’ squabble, Mercedes proved their upgrades have changed their prospects in 2024 after Hamilton won in Silverstone on pure pace.
After scoring it’s first qualifying 1-2 since Jeddah 2021, the team was able to race both McLaren and Red Bull on pure race pace in changeable conditions.
While Norris’ pace dropped off on the soft tyres at the end of the final stint in the race, which paved the way for Verstappen to chase after Hamilton, the seven-time world-champion was able to hold a consistent pace which helped fend off his 2021 rival.
After the race, Wolff said: “Last week’s win was fortuitous. Today, we were quick in almost all conditions.
“We were running first and second for a long time and, although the McLaren’s were quick when the rain fell, we were able to get back ahead of them.
“It is a win on merit, and it shows the grit of this team. We never stopped believing, we never stopped working, and we have been able to unlock the potential in the car. We are now on a roll.”
“It is undeniable the loss of Hamilton will be dramatically felt by the team.”
The change in the team’s performance means there has been a change in the team’s viewpoint on 2025.
Unlikely to challenge for either drivers or constructors in 2024, next year is beginning to look hopeful if they are starting to understand it’s current design package.
While Russell has had a strong year and looks ready to fill the position of team leader, it is undeniable the loss of Hamilton will be dramatically felt by the team with Silverstone a fantastic display of the expertise Hamilton will take with him.
Alongside this, in an incredibly close grid, the biggest difference from first to fifth in the constructors championship is the quality of a team’s driver line-up with Red Bull an example of a team that is suffering from a weak pairing.
Although Verstappen might not be winning every race of 2024, he has been the most consistent driver so far which has been in strong contrast to his teammate, Sergio Perez, who has been anything but reliable so far.
“We will have an evaluation during the summer break.”
A strong start to 2024, the Mexican driver has begun to struggle with the same demons he suffered from in the late stages in 2023 and has not finished higher than eighth since Imola in May.
Signed on for a 1+1 contract with Red Bull despite his poor form, both McLaren drivers have been putting in strong performances to take big knocks out of Red Bull’s constructor lead, only 75 points behind heading in Hungary.
If Perez doesn’t pick up pace, it looks likely that, not only will the team lose the title lead, Perez may lost his seat, with doubts beginning to arise about his safety despite his contract security.
Speaking to GrandPrix247, Helmut Marko said: “All Formula 1 contracts have exit clauses, most of them related to performance or let’s say for the top drivers.
“Lawson is testing at Silverstone on Thursday. So two more races and there will be more outings with Lawson. There’s also Yuki Tusnoda who is doing very well.
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“As I mentioned before, we will have an evaluation during the summer break and then we will make a decision.”
What Mercedes and other teams have begun to notice is that a strong driver pairing that can deliver consistent high scoring points could make the difference in the current F1 climate.
“These seeds of doubts look to have begun to grow at Mercedes.”
While good news for the sport, it is less so for rookies looking for big opportunities as teams have begun to shy away from making big risk driver decisions.
Antonelli may be quick but can he keep up with surrounding drivers at the top end of F1?
These seeds of doubts look to have begun to grow at Mercedes with it looking more likely Sainz will go to the silver arrows on a short term contract while Antonelli may suit a team at the lower end of the grid to begin with.
A likely option will be that Mercedes and Williams agree that Antonelli signs for Grove-based team to give him experience in the sport before he makes the jump.
A common career route, very few have immediately jumped to one of the best teams on the grid in their rookie season.
It feels unwise at this point to sign Antonelli and best to try and get him a seat elsewhere for a short period of time.
“What matters to me, rather, is to create a long-term relationship.”
While Williams is a team which has plenty of options, if Sainz does move to Mercedes, he is a smart choice for the team but might mess with their plans for a ‘long-term’ driver.
Williams team principal, James Vowles, has been keen on Sainz in hopes he can help drive the team’s future, which is something Antonelli might not be able to do if Mercedes hope to snatch him in the future.
Vowles to MotoriOnline said: “What matters to me, rather, is to create a long-term relationship, regardless of the decisions that Williams and the driver make.
“I am sure that all this will be clarified before September.”
Sainz offers a future with the team that other options don’t. Although Sauber driver, Valterri Bottas, looks also to be a strong candidate, his age and other interests outside of F1 make him also look like a short-term seat filler.
It may be limited with choices however if Sainz does choose Mercedes which would make the decision at this time between Bottas and Antonelli.
Dependant on what the team wants, this could make Antonelli a less favourable option as he is unproven at the top level while Bottas is one of the most consistent drivers in F1 who has driven at the top for Mercedes before.
Sainz’s lack of contract still looks to act as the cork in the bottle of the F1 driver’s market and no team is looking to jump until he does.
It seems unfair that a driver’s future should be decided by the decisions of another but F1 is a cruel sport and Mercedes would be lucky to sign the Spaniard despite the prospect of the young Italian driver.
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